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in North America as compared to the West- land area of Holland, it’s way cheaper in these peri-urban markets.”
This is a view that’s also held by Goodman.
“Everything I’ve read would say that their startup costs are higher in cities,” she says. “They’re not sharing their pro tability but from what I’ve heard, a lot of these [urban] farms are not pro table yet.”
From her study in New York, the higher startup costs translated to higher prices for urban CEA produce as well.
“It takes a lot to recoup their startup costs. In the store I can tell you they’re marked up considerably, even from organic and locally grown,” she says. “Are cities really the ideal place to be doing CEA? Are these farms as pro table as they claim, and for me is enough nutrient-dense produce getting into the hands of low-income people? I don’t think it is.”
Lightfoot of BrightFarms says his produce is already cost competitive with  eld-grown organic salads.
“But not all CEA produce is the same. Vertical farms have signi cantly higher costs of labor and utilities, and sometimes capital equipment,” he says. “So, their starting points are materially higher. Production costs, partic- ularly labor, water and transportation, will rise for  eld-grown produce, while the production costs will decrease for BrightFarms.”
“We de nitely think cost parity is achiev- able,” says Little Leaf Farms’ Sellew. “Right now I would say the  eld guys have an advan- tage. But from a quality standpoint, there’s no comparison.”
Dickson Despommier, an emeritus professor at Columbia University who published his book The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21 Century in 2010, says changes in the climate will make tradi- tional agriculture increasingly challenging, thus paving the way for CEA.
“If you just wait another 10 or 15, but perhaps 20 years from now, outdoor farming will begin to fail at a catastrophic rate,” says Despommier. “That has not happened yet, but it will given the rate of change that’s already in place.
“I would say the initial criticisms for vertical farming with regards to the amount of energy consumed were absolutely correct, but there are some places in the world which have unlimited amounts of energy that don’t have to worry about this,” he adds, empha- sizing the bene ts of solar energy as well as geothermal energy in particular parts of the world like Iceland and New Zealand.
According to the CEA companies, produc- tivity is on the rise as well, thus driving down the cost per pound.
“We are fundamentally changing farming by being able to grow baby leafy greens with more than 390 times greater productivity per square foot on an annualized basis versus  eld farming and more than 10 times greater than hydroponic greenhouse growing,” says Oshima.
Bowery’s Fain claims his company is 100 times more productive on the same foot- print of land compared to traditional agricul- ture, and new technologies are constantly improving output.
“Machine learning and AI are incredibly powerful tools to increase yields and opti- mize freshness, quality, and  avor of our produce,” he says. “At the core of our farms is our proprietary software BoweryOS, which uses automation, machine learning, cameras and sensors to monitor plants and all the variables that drive their growth 24/7.
BrightFarms’ Lightfoot says initial tech- nology and production advances were in growing systems such as irrigation, lighting and ventilation, but now improvement is coming from new sources.
“While we continue to innovate on those fronts, we are now also seeing huge advances in more digital technology, such as machine learning, camera scanning and other tools for improved predictive analytics that help us improve yields and reduce costs,” he says.
SO WHERE TO FROM HERE?
It is likely more urban and peri-urban CEA companies will pop up, not just with new farms but new growing methods and business models as well? And as more players enter the market, it may be that prices are pushed down, and the sector loses some of its premium.
Spezzano of Spezzano Consulting draws a parallel in this sense to what has happened in the organic sector, and he also predicts many of the larger  eld-grown companies will either partner with CEA companies or get into urban growing themselves.
“One of the motivating reasons is to be a complete stop for their customer to pick up or for them to deliver to the customers’ DCs (distribution centers),” he says. “I envision these joint or individual ventures will allow the California, Florida, Texas, and Mexico growers to build or take over larger facilities so they can cross-dock the items they grow near their metro customers. This will create tremendous ef ciencies.” pb
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